Es PosibleEs Posible
More registrations than citizens, 20,000 names on a thumb drive, and a diaspora Morena wants to turn into political muscle. What is at stake 17 days before the vote.
The question is not whether noncitizens vote. It is why no one is allowed to check.
In 2022 California reported 26,942,532 voter registrations. That same year it had 26,028,290 citizens of voting age. That is 914,242 more registrations than people who can legally vote. The number comes from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, not from an activist.
In 2025 the Justice Department asked to see the full roll. California said no, and a federal judge agreed with California. On October 15 the government sued again, this time with a list: more than 20,000 people that Homeland Security says are likely noncitizens and are registered to vote. Many of them with addresses in Los Angeles County.
I separate three things that almost everyone blends together. What is proven. What the government alleges. And what I conclude. You decide.
And I explain why this matters most to the Mexican community in the United States, documented or not. While Washington fights over California's roll, Morena, Mexico's ruling party, is working on its own roll: the diaspora.
The number going around is real. So is the explanation: almost five million of those registrations are inactive. They stay on the list, but they are not mailed a ballot. The deeper problem is different. No one outside the system can audit who is on the active list.
Before the data, the bottom line. If you only read this, you already have the essentials.
Transparency on the roll and limits on foreign influence. You can demand both at the same time.
Picture a guest list with more names than people in town. It does not mean strangers walked in. It means the list never gets cleaned.
That is California's voter roll. In 2022 there were 26,942,532 registrations for 26,028,290 citizens over 18. 103.5 registrations for every 100 people who can vote.
Federal law explains part of it. The National Voter Registration Act of 1993 bars removing someone just for not voting. If a voter does not answer an address confirmation notice, the voter is marked inactive and kept through two federal general elections. Only then can the registration be cancelled.
So two lists live side by side. The active one: 21,958,218 registrations, 84.4% of eligible citizens. And the inactive one: 4,984,314. People who moved, died or left the state. They are still on paper. By law they are not mailed a ballot.
Los Angeles is the extreme case. 7,412,146 registrations. Inactive: 1,793,321. One in four.
This happened before. In 2019 the county and the state settled with Judicial Watch and agreed to notify up to 1.5 million inactive registrants and remove those who did not respond. After 2022 the county removed 1.2 million. The settlement declared no fraud and no fault. My reading: neglect.
Source: EAC, Election Administration and Voting Survey 2022, tables A1 and C1. Ballots mailed include replacements and duplicates; net of replacements, the total matches the active roll.
Now the number almost nobody looks at. In 2022 California mailed 22,491,229 ballots. 9,986,701 came back voted. Another 330,261 came back because the voter no longer lived at that address. In Los Angeles, 65,822.
Those are ballots that traveled to the wrong homes. Most return to the county. From the outside, nobody can say how many did not.
That is the point. The 103% is not proof that noncitizens vote. It is proof that the largest voter roll in the country runs on one rule: trust us.
“The 103% does not prove fraud. It proves that the largest voter roll in America runs on a single rule: trust us.Simón Levy
Complaint: United States v. State of California, Shirley N. Weber and Dean C. Logan, Case 2:26-cv-12025, C.D. Cal., filed Oct 15, 2026: justice.gov/opa/media/1466286/dl · DOJ press release: justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-state-california-over-voter-list
Voter roll: EAC, Election Administration and Voting Survey 2022, Comprehensive Report, Appendix A, Voter Registration Table 1 (California: 26,942,532 registrations; 21,958,218 active; 4,984,314 inactive; CVAP 26,028,290) and EAVS 2022 public dataset (Los Angeles: A1a-A1c, C1a-C1f) · EAVS California 2022 data brief
California: Secretary of State release PR26-127 (Oct 14, 2026) · sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/vote-mail · Elections Code sec. 2226 · AP, Oct 15 and 16, 2026 · Al Jazeera, Oct 15, 2026
2025 case: KEYT, Jan 16, 2026 (Judge David O. Carter) · LWV California, USA v. Weber · Washington Examiner, May 19, 2026 · NBC, Aug 16, 2026 · Al Jazeera, Oct 9, 2026 (Judge Sparkle Sooknanan) · Democracy Docket, Oct 16, 2026 · Sixth Circuit, Jun 24, 2026 (CNN via KVIA) · Supreme Court, Sep 25, 2026
Reviews: HSToday (DHS letters, Jul 2026) · The Nevada Independent, Aug 21, 2026 · FactCheck.org, Mar 2026 · Daily Signal, Jul 24, 2026 · Alabama Reflector, Oct 24, 2024 (Georgia) · Reuters via GMA, Jul 19, 2026 · Brennan Center, 2017 · Jurist, Oct 3, 2026 (Cox case)
DMV: AP via KTVU, Oct 8, 2018 · CBS Sacramento, Apr 5, 2018 (AB 60) · PolitiFact via KVCR, Jan 29, 2018 · 2024 margins: AP via Fox LA (CA-13: 187) and certified CA-45 results (653)
Population: KFF State Health Facts, citizenship distribution, California 2024 · BBVA Research, 2024 remittances · Pew Research, Mexican-born population
Morena and consulates: Zeta Tijuana, Feb 2017 · El Financiero, Jun 14, 2024 · Fox News, Jan 19, 2026 (Schweizer) · Telemundo, Jan 28, 2026 (SRE) · CBS and AP, May 7-8, 2026 · Diario de Yucatán, May 14, 2026 (Salvador García Soto column) · Public FARA database, efile.fara.gov
São Paulo Forum: 2018 Havana Declaration (Aporrea) · Primicias, Jun 27, 2024 (Tegucigalpa) · Diario de Pernambuco, Jun 2023 (Brasília delegations) · member party listing